China economic system grows 4.9% in third quarter as post-pandemic momentum slows

China’s financial progress weakened within the third quarter as a property slowdown and vitality shortages highlighted the nation’s incomplete restoration from the coronavirus pandemic, posing a formidable problem to President Xi Jinping’s coverage agenda.

Gross home product grew 4.9 per cent within the third quarter, in comparison with the identical interval final yr, in keeping with information launched by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics on Monday. However in comparison with the second quarter this yr progress was simply 0.2 per cent.

The figures add to the stress constructing on Xi as he enters the ultimate yr of his second time period and pursues an formidable “common prosperity” agenda to control excessive incomes and “encourage high-income teams and enterprises to return extra to society”.

His priorities embrace an unprecedented crackdown on leverage in the property sector that would mark the start of the tip of the nation’s debt-fuelled financial mannequin.

Policymakers are additionally grappling with an energy crisis that has led to energy rationing throughout the nation, pushed factory gate inflation to its highest stage since 1995 and compelled the federal government to extend coal production regardless of pledges to scale back carbon emissions made final yr.

China’s economic system far outperformed different developed nations in 2020 after new Covid circumstances slowed to a trickle by the center of the yr, pushed by a building increase, larger industrial exercise and hovering exports.

However the newest information reveal a lack of momentum this yr, with industrial manufacturing rising 3.1 per cent in September and edging simply 0.1 per cent larger month-on-month. Retail gross sales, a gauge of client spending that has lagged behind the broader restoration partly due to strict anti-coronavirus journey restrictions, beat expectations to develop 4.4 per cent.

The nation’s reliance on a credit-fuelled funding binge to counter the drag of the pandemic, mixed with a sequence of financial institution reserve cuts in mid-2020, led to surging house costs in main cities.

However the authorities has moved aggressively to constrain mortgage lending and borrowing by property builders, casting a shadow over a sector that contributes greater than 1 / 4 of financial output.

Final month Evergrande, China’s second-largest developer by gross sales, missed a sequence of bond funds, resulting in a collapse in investor demand for bonds issued by different builders.

Property funding has risen 8.8 per cent in 2021, whereas fastened asset funding was up 7.3 over the identical interval.

China’s central financial institution has indicated it isn’t inclined to assist Evergrande, which is extensively anticipated to bear one of many nation’s largest ever restructurings within the coming weeks and months.

Regardless of China’s broader financial slowdown, exports grew 28 per cent final month year-on-year in greenback phrases, in an indication of resilience for the nation’s commerce sector regardless of the vitality disaster and different provide chain challenges.

Further reporting by Xinning Liu