An undefeated Cincinnati nonetheless will not be sufficient for School Soccer Playoff choice committee

It’s too early to imagine an undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats staff could be invited by the School Soccer Playoff committee to take part of their annual four-team invitational match. However it’s not too early to count on they might not.

It has been charming to see so many members of the school soccer media endorse the Bearcats’ CFP candidacy following their dazzling street victory over Notre Dame, including our own Bill Bender. It was a bit of stunning to see a Capital One-sponsored fan vote posit Cincinnati because the nation’s third-best staff behind SEC powers Alabama and Georgia, however which may have been the product of some frantic social media maneuvering from extremely motivated Bearcats followers.

What stunned me a bit, although, had been the outcomes of a Twitter ballot I designed that requested a easy query in regards to the 2021 season: “To illustrate it is the night time of Dec. 4 and Cincinnati has gained the AAC Championship sport and completed undefeated. Will the School Soccer Playoff committee put them into the 4 staff subject?

Of 1,545 who voted, 47.5 p.c mentioned sure.

These folks have much more religion within the CFP system than I do.

Each little bit of proof at hand says the reply will likely be no.

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We’ve seen the varied members of the committee at work since 2014. That’s seven editions of the CFP. We’ve seen how they ranked completed, unblemished groups from exterior the “Energy 5” over the course of these years.

At 12-1 with solely a three-point loss to Connecticut in 2015, Houston was ranked No. 18 by the CFP committee. With an ideal document in 2016, Western Michigan was No. 15. They committee insulted UCF’s 12-0 squad a 12 months later with a No. 12 rating, and after they repeated that achievement a 12 months later, they superior merely to No. 8, behind two power-conference groups that misplaced twice every.

Cincinnati has traveled this identical path already, profitable each regular-season sport and the American Athletic Convention championship sport in 2020 whereas dodging COVID-19 stoppages like everybody else. The Bearcats had been ranked eighth and positioned behind a Florida staff that fell 3 times.

That’s the surroundings these Bearcats will navigate if they’re profitable hurdling the varied obstacles that stay of their season: a Friday night time residence sport this week that’s an apparent setup for a letdown in opposition to feisty Temple; proficient however unpredictable UCF at residence per week later; No. 24 SMU at residence earlier than Thanksgiving and the persistent temptation to imagine that each one probably the most daunting challenges had been conquered when the Bearcats departed Notre Dame Stadium.

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Is it totally different as a result of the Bearcats traveled to probably the most traditionally necessary venue within the sport and defeated an Irish squad that, on the time, carried a top-10 rating? That’s the hope that propels Cincinnati followers and all those that champion school soccer’s finest middleweights.

However UC’s spectacular street win in opposition to Indiana already has misplaced a few of its heft because the Hoosiers fell to 2-3 with a 24-0 loss at Penn State, and there’s no telling how ND will fare in future video games in opposition to Virginia Tech, USC and North Carolina. Bearcats followers now have to be almost as consumed with future outcomes of IU and Notre Dame as these of their very own staff.

To paraphrase my pal Brian Snow, a Cincinnati native who now could be director of recruiting in Penn State’s males’s basketball program, a decline of both staff wouldn’t be the Bearcats’ fault, however it will be their drawback.

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And that’s presuming the committee would to not inject any aggressive logic in any respect into arguments in opposition to Cincinnati past the standard, “Take a look at their convention.” Solely 5-0 SMU, which earned a 42-34 victory over Massive 12 member TCU, and 4-1 Houston are greater than a sport above .500.

We don’t know what’s going to occur in any of the conferences that historically have despatched its most profitable groups to the CFP. (Effectively, we type of know what’ll occur within the SEC). Ohio State might proceed its rebound from failing in opposition to Oregon and flailing in opposition to Tulsa to defeat such opponents as Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan and, let’s say, Iowa within the Massive Ten Championship sport. Oregon might recuperate from its time beyond regulation stumble in opposition to Stanford and roll by means of the remainder of the Pac-12 season. Oklahoma hasn’t misplaced but, however the Sooners have been devalued as a result of they’ve not been dominant. In the event that they unimpress their technique to an undefeated season, although, the CFP committee’s MO could be to embrace them over anybody from a convention perceived to be much less imposing.

There have been 28 groups invited to earlier CFPs. None was from a convention exterior the Energy 5. No staff from the AAC or the Mountain West or any such league has even come shut. The convergence of a gifted Cincinnati staff that entered the season with latest accomplishment and a schedule that provided the chance at Notre Dame has many hoping that established pattern will likely be damaged.

That’s what it’s, although: hope. There’s was a enterprise ebook about gross sales referred to as, “Hope is Not a Technique.” And nonetheless it stays an indispensable a part of the plan for the perfect of faculty soccer’s outsiders.