Juan Soto for NL MVP? September stretch has Nationals outfielder presenting sturdy case

For all of the discuss of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s chase of the Triple Crown and Fernando Tatis Jr.’s dynamic play in San Diego, one other 22-year-old has stolen the present in September.

Juan Soto and the Nationals is likely to be occupying the cellar of the NL East at 64-89, however that has definitely not been due to Soto. In September, he leads all MLB hitters in WAR, according to Fangraphs, and with the latest success he is surged right into a tie with the Phillies’ Bryce Harper among the many fWAR leaders this season within the Nationwide League at 6.5.

Coming into September, the front-runners for NL MVP had been Harper, Tatis and Dodgers first baseman Max Muncy. Solely Muncy’s workforce will make the playoffs, and his workforce is stacked. Because it appears more and more doubtless that an MVP will come from a workforce that will not attain the playoffs, Soto appears to have put his title not solely within the dialog, however maybe on the high of the record.

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It hasn’t simply been a red-hot September, although that has definitely been a propellant. He is quietly been placing collectively an unimaginable, even historic, marketing campaign.

Soto’s month of September

It has been the ultimate stretch of the season in 2021 when Soto has taken his recreation to a distinct degree.

He has posted a .473/.608/.838 slash line. He is hit seven dwelling runs. He is walked 25.5 % of the time. He is struck out 5.9 % of the time. That is a 4.33 BB/Okay ratio. That’s absurd.

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A part of what makes Soto such a harmful hitter is his capacity to spray the ball throughout the sector. According to Baseball Savant, this season he has pulled 29.7 % of batted balls, despatched 44.2 % up the center and posted a 26.1 % reverse area price.

Check out the place Soto is hitting the ball in September, overlayed throughout Nationals Park (10 of the video games have been performed on the street).

When he is unable to hit it previous the infield, he is been a pull-heavy hitter. However the issue for opposing groups is that he has seemingly by no means been hitting it into the infield, and as soon as he reaches the outfield, he is spraying it throughout the sector.

Soto is not simply hitting it to all fields. He is scorching the ball. His common exit velocity in September is 94.1 mph, greater than a mile per hour sooner than his seasonal common of 92.9. By comparability, solely 4 gamers have a seasonal exit velocity greater than 94.1 — Aaron Decide (95.9), Guerrero Jr. (95.3), Giancarlo Stanton (95.1) and Tatis (94.3).

Oh, and do not even take into consideration throwing him a fastball. He has a median exit velocity of 99.3 mph on four-seamers in September.

Soto’s historic plate self-discipline

Probably the most frequent comparability for Soto has usually been Ted Williams.

It at instances looks like an unfair comparability to narrate a 22-year-old to one of many biggest hitters of all time. At different instances, it feels unattainable not to match the 2.

This season: Soto has taken 131 walks and struck out solely 84 instances. Few have ever posted numbers that spectacular, not to mention so younger. Here is the total record of batters who’ve completed the season with at the least 130 walks and fewer than 100 strikeouts.

These are some massive names. The one two not within the Corridor of Fame are Soto, who continues to be lively, and Eddie Yost. Take it a step additional, although. Who’re the 2 youngest on that record, and the one two to perform the feat at age 22? That is proper: Williams and Soto.

There is not particular pitch-by-pitch information on Williams, however because of Baseball Savant we are able to take a look at how disciplined Soto has been in 2021. With a minimum of just 25 plate appearances, Soto is second behind solely a pitcher with 44 plate appearances with a chase price of 12.6 %. Among qualifying hitters, Soto chases pitches exterior the zone at a price practically 4 % decrease than the subsequent closest batter.

He additionally will not swing at pitches within the zone as usually as loads of sluggers. His swing price on pitches within the strike zone continues to be only a modest 59.8 %, the fourth-lowest in baseball.

Turning swings to energy

Soto might need a low swing price within the zone, nevertheless it’s for a cause: He is ready for his pitch.

According to Baseball Savant, Soto’s lowest swing charges on locations within the strike zone are down and in, and up and away. His swing price will increase to 75 % on pitches proper down the center, 71 % on pitches up and within the center, 65 % down within the center, 69 % up and inside and 62 % center and inside.

Now take a look at the exit velocity on batted balls throughout the strike zone this 12 months for Soto.

The very first thing that stands out is how a lot yellow is within the strike zone. Nearly each time he places the ball in play, Soto is driving it with power. Baseball Savant has him listed within the 94th percentile or higher in common exit velocity, max exit velocity and exhausting hit price, and his barrel price is on the eighty fifth percentile.

The following factor to note is that it is clear pitchers hold the ball down on Soto for worry of what he’ll do to pitches up within the zone. He nonetheless stings the ball, however he is not hitting it as far. Based on Baseball Savant, he has solely hit 5 dwelling runs on pitches within the backside three elements of the strike zone, whereas 20 have come from the center three.

Soto’s case for MVP

Even with the plate self-discipline and his capacity to drive the ball, this hasn’t even been his finest season for energy. Final 12 months, he recorded a slugging share of .695, however this 12 months it’s simply at .559, although in fact final 12 months he was in simply 47 video games due to the shortened season. In 2019, he hit extra dwelling runs with 34, nevertheless it got here at the price of a better strikeout price of 20 % and decrease on-base share (.401).

As a substitute, he is put all the pieces collectively this 12 months. Soto is reaching base at a .470 clip and slugging at .559. The on-base share is the most effective within the majors by a landslide (Harper is subsequent at .432) and his slugging share has him trailing solely Harper, Tatis, Guerrero, Shohei Ohtani and Joey Votto.

Even his protection has been stellar. He has tallied six outs above common in left area, according to Baseball Savant, which has him at 18th amongst qualifying MLB outfielders.

Soto cannot management that his workforce has not carried out properly this season. He has accomplished all the pieces in his energy to guarantee that the Nationals are a aggressive workforce. Simply Thursday evening, he hit two solo dwelling runs as Washington beat the Reds, a workforce hoping to chase down St. Louis for the ultimate wild-card spot, 3-2. When it comes time for ballots to be forged for the NL MVP, Soto deserves as a lot consideration as another participant within the Nationwide League.