NFL odds, traces, level spreads: Up to date Week 4 betting data for choosing each recreation

Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season as soon as once more belonged to the underdogs. Underdogs went 9-7 in opposition to the unfold for the second consecutive week to enhance their report on the yr to 30-18, a canopy proportion of 62.5.

That mentioned, because the yr goes on, that pattern will probably even out and stay round .500. Bettors and bookmakers are studying rather more about every staff and as they gather extra information, it turns into simpler to seek out undervalued traces and make sleeper picks in opposition to the unfold.

Three video games is a reasonably stable pattern measurement by which to find out tendencies. Savvy bettors put a whole lot of work attempting to separate the nice and dangerous groups from the fortunate and unfortunate. Some groups look good however have performed a weak schedule. Others look dangerous however have misplaced a number of one-possession video games late. Understanding the totally different between good and fortunate could make an enormous distinction when making weekly picks in opposition to the unfold.

Harm luck has additionally shifted the betting panorama. There have been loads of groups which have misplaced quarterbacks, together with Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), Andy Dalton (Bears) and Tyrod Taylor (Texans). Different groups, just like the Colts and Eagles, are coping with key accidents to non-quarterbacks. That’s making it tougher for them to play at a excessive stage.

All of this data is beneficial to bettors. It might probably clarify why traces are shifting and why some groups are failing to dwell as much as expectations. Understanding the most recent tendencies, odds and damage information is crucial, so ensure you take note of all the things as Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season begins.

For extra knowledgeable NFL predictions, take a look at Sporting Information’ picks straight up and against the spread for Week 4.

WEEK 4 NFL PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up

NFL odds for Week 4

Under are the most recent Week 4 NFL odds, together with level spreads, cash traces and over-under totals for each recreation, in keeping with FanDuel Sportsbook.

Final up to date: Wednesday, Sept. 29

NFL level spreads Week 4

NFL cash traces Week 4

NFL over-unders Week 4

NFL POWER RANKINGS: Rams on the rise after win over Bucs

NFL finest bets for Week 4

Rams (-4.5) vs. Cardinals

The Rams have confirmed to be top-of-the-line NFL groups to this point in 2021, and so they have likelihood to stay because the final unbeaten standing within the not-so-distant future. Their Week 4 matchup with the Cardinals might look powerful on paper, however latest historical past favors the Rams on this one.

Los Angeles has by no means misplaced to Arizona throughout Sean McVay’s time because the coach of the Rams. He holds an 8-0 report in opposition to Arizona and the Rams have received these video games by a median of 20 factors. Solely one of many video games was determined by fewer than 10 factors.

It is value noting that Kyler Murray was solely the Cardinals’ beginning quarterback in 4 of these video games, however his numbers have nonetheless been poor in opposition to the Rams protection. He has logged a completion proportion of 58.7 in opposition to the Rams and has generated six whole touchdowns in comparison with seven turnovers.

Brandon Staley could also be gone, however Raheem Morris has confirmed adept at getting his protection to carry out in key spots. He ought to discover a method to preserve Murray off-balance. Murray has thrown 4 interceptions by way of three video games this season, so he’s liable to make some errors in opposition to the Rams’ sturdy secondary.

In any case, we noticed what the Rams did to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers final week. The protection restricted Tampa Bay to 17 factors earlier than the Bucs made issues respectable with a garbage-time landing within the Rams’ 34-24 win.

On the opposite aspect of the ball, the Rams’ offense is averaging 304.3 passing yards per recreation, good for the sixth-most within the NFL. The Cardinals have been stable in opposition to the move this yr, however they could have bother slowing down the Rams’ arsenal of weapons. They merely do not have the cornerback depth wanted to cowl the likes of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson and a seemingly rejuvenated DeSean Jackson.

The Rams can win this one by a landing; given their historical past, they need to. You possibly can belief them as favorites this week although they’re going through one other undefeated staff.

Chiefs (-7.5) at Eagles

The Chiefs have not been reliable in opposition to the unfold of late. The truth is, for the reason that starting of the 2020 season, they’re simply 8-14 and so they’re 0-3 ATS this yr. In addition they have the second-lowest cowl proportion within the NFL (36.4) in that span. Solely the Jets (31.6) are worse.

That mentioned, Kansas Metropolis must be hyper-motivated to win their Week 4 contest. They’re sitting at 1-2 on the season and are in final place within the AFC West. They’re assured to stay there for an additional week, however they’ve to start out excited about catching the Raiders and Broncos, who’re each 3-0.

The Eagles will give the Chiefs likelihood to win. Philadelphia simply struggled immensely to cease the Cowboys’ offense. The Cowboys run the ball higher than the Chiefs, however Clyde Edwards-Helaire ought to be capable of benefit from the Eagles’ Twenty sixth-ranked run protection that permits 133.7 speeding yards per recreation.

Oh yeah, the Chiefs even have Patrick Mahomes, too. Mahomes has misplaced back-to-back video games simply twice in his profession. What has he completed after these two-game dropping streaks? He has helped the Chiefs win by a median of 28 factors per recreation. That features a 32-point win over the Raiders in 2018 and a 24-point win over the Broncos in 2019.

The Eagles could possibly run the ball a bit on the Chiefs, who struggled in opposition to Lamar Jackson earlier within the season and have the NFL’s second-worst run protection, however will they be capable of do sufficient if Mahomes and the Chiefs shred the Eagles’ protection like Dallas did? The Cowboys simply scored 41 factors on them, so the Chiefs might do the identical.

On the finish of the day, this looks like bounce-back spot for the Chiefs. We’re keen to belief them after fading them against the Chargers final week.

MORE: Inside Justin Tucker’s record-breaking field goal

Texans (+16.5) at Payments

I do know what you are pondering. The Texans will not be staff and they will be beginning Davis Mills in simply his second profession NFL recreation. The Payments have received their final two video games by 22 and 35 factors respectively.

So, why must you choose the Texans? All of it has to do with historical past and motivation.

Since 2003, groups which might be 14-point underdogs or larger have posted a report of 70-61-4 in opposition to the unfold, per TeamRankings.com. Meaning the favourite has coated 45.1 % of the time whereas the underdog has coated 51.9 % of the time. That is a stable benefit for the underdog.

What can we take away from this? It is merely tough for a favourite to cowl a selection of two touchdowns or extra. As such, it is normally higher to go along with the underdog, as all it would take is one garbage-time landing or fluky turnover from the favourite to earn a canopy.

The Payments are also staff to fade right here contemplating their upcoming schedule. They’re enjoying the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 5, so they could be trying forward a bit to that AFC Championship Sport rematch. In the event that they barely overlook the Texans, that might give Houston an opportunity to remain within the recreation longer and forestall the Payments from pulling away outright.

The Texans even have a relaxation benefit having final performed on “Thursday Night time Soccer” in Week 3. So, they will be a bit more energizing than the Payments.

Buffalo will nearly definitely win this recreation. The -1200 moneyline implies that they’ve a 92.3 % likelihood to do this. However do not be stunned if the Texans preserve it from getting out of hand and canopy this 16.5-point unfold.